This post will serve as a collecting place for some of the greatest content I’ve come upon over the course of my lifetime. The aim is to only have on this page content that invokes a gasp or a silence when learning of it for the first time.

These are not in order, and the list will grow rapidly in the beginning. If you think something should be added, please let me know in the comments or via email.

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• Two Logical Fallacies We Must Avoid
  A stunning piece regarding two basic problems in basic moral logic:

  • The Naturalist Fallacy: the tendency to believe that what is natural is good; that what is, ought to be.
  • The Moralistic Fallacy: the leap from ought to is, the claim that the way things should be is the way they are.

  A great many moral arguments are based on one of these two foundations. Being able to identify them is the first step to countering them.

• The Dunning-Kruger Effect
  The idea is that in skills as diverse as reading comprehension, operating a motor vehicle, and playing chess or tennis, “ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge”. With a typical skill which humans may possess in greater or lesser degree,

  1. Incompetent individuals tend to overestimate their own level of skill.
  2. Incompetent individuals fail to recognize genuine skill in others.
  3. Incompetent individuals fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy.
  4. If they can be trained to substantially improve their own skill level, these individuals can recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill. This is basically the scientific description of the, “know-it-all who doesn’t know shit” phenomenon.

• The Pareto Principle (The 80/20 Rule)
  Also known as the Law of the Vital Few, it states that for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes. Commonly seen in business as, “80% of your sales comes from 20% of your clients.”

• Parkinson’s Law
  Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion. Or, “work expands to fill the time available”. Basically, if you give yourself eight weeks to complete a report, it will likely take you that long.
  
  But if you give yourself just three days you may be able to do it in that time as well, especially since you’re only likely to spend that amount of time total on it anyway.

• It’s the Educated vs. Those Easily Fooled by Propaganda
  A brilliant piece on the REAL problem facing America–the staggering rise of ignorance and predjudice-based gullibility in the United States.

• Occam’s Razor
  aka “The Law of Parsimony”, or “The Law of Succinctness”. Occam’s Razor is an interesting one, as there is the newer, accepted, and technically incorrect meaning, and then there is the real one. First the modern, common, and wrong one: This one reduces to the idea that all things being equal, the simpler of two explanations for something is probably correct. A common interpretation of this is “entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity”, from the Latin, “Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem”. There are many similar or related versions of this, e.g. “Make everything as simple as possible, but no simpler.” (Einstein), and “The simplest answer is usually the correct answer.”
  
  This is, however, incorrect. Occam’s razor is not concerned with the simplicity or complexity of a good explanation as such, it only demands that the explanation is free of elements that have nothing to do with the phenomenon (and the explanation) [Wikipedia]. Here’s a quote by Occam himself that shows the true meaning: “The source of many errors in philosophy is the claim that a distinct signified thing always corresponds to a distinct word in such a way that there are as many distinct entities being signified as there are distinct names or words doing the signifying.” (Summula Philosophiae Naturalis III, chap. 7, see also Summa Totus Logicae Bk I, C.51).
  
  We are apt to suppose that a word like “paternity” signifies some “distinct entity”, because we suppose that each distinct word signifies a distinct entity. This leads to all sorts of absurdities, such as “a column is to the right by to-the-rightness”, “God is creating by creation, is good by goodness, is just by justice, is powerful by power”, “an accident inheres by inherence”, “a subject is subjected by subjection”, “a suitable thing is suitable by suitability”, “a chimera is nothing by nothingness”, “a blind thing is blind by blindness”, ” a body is mobile by mobility”. We should say instead that a man is a father because he has a son (Summa C.51). [Wikipedia]

• Reciprocal Altruism
  There have been numerous experiments regarding organisms that have been programmed programmed (think game theory) to take all of the time, take some of the time and share some of the time, share most of the time except with takers, or share all of the time. They run simulations of these various models to see who “wins” by having more resources/babies at the end.
  
  As it turns out, the best way to get ahead is to share with others who share, with the caveat that you protect yourself from those who cheat. But the interesting thing is that the pure takers don’t dominate over the others. They get shunned by the sharers, and the intelligent sharers prosper the most. That to me is a model for an open society.

• Conformation Bias

• Cognitive Dissonance

(contact me to add to this page)

I’ve been a bit depressed lately. I’m behind on projects at work, and it’s really getting to me. I haven’t been working out (which leads to a lack of enthusiasm for life). I haven’t been learning much new in my field lately (due to being behind on projects). Etc. Etc.

Meh.

But that’s not the bad part. What I’m really worried about is the economy. Yeah, I know, everyone is. But I’m not worried about how a milk costing 20% more will affect me; I’m worried about how it’s effect on other people is going to effect me. That sounds selfish, and maybe it is, but what I’m saying is that I have an unshakeable feeling that things are about to go sideways.

I mean seriously sideways. Like civil unrest. Like looting. Like…sideways.

My problem is that I tend to go heavy on the hyperbole with things like this. I have an active imagination, and it’s impossible for someone with my minimal knowledge of macro-economics to understand what the true variables are. This combination leads to speculation–in a bad way.

But what I do think I have a handle on is the potential for violence within our country. I don’t think most realize how little the perception of order needs to be disrupted for large numbers of people, within every city, to simply decide to go batshit crazy. And that’s just for fun. That’s not counting when they actually can’t eat. Then it’s going to get seriously messed up.

So what’s a logical person to do? You don’t go buy shotguns and booby traps and prepare to kill your neighbors. That’s lame. And you don’t just sit back and hope (or pray) that everything will be fine. That’s lame too.

Logic lies somewhere between those extremes. My current recommendation is to buy enough food, water, and supplies to be able to not go outside for 2-4 weeks. And to consider buying a weapon to protect yourself and your family. Nothing outrageous: a handgun or rifle, or whatever, and some rounds.

In other words, don’t go all Mad Max and shit, but don’t be naive either. I don’t expect things to stay bad for long before they get set back right. Chaos is not good for those in power, so all the iron filings will push us towards order pretty quickly. And if that doesn’t happen, and it gets really bad, well…that’s just not even worth contemplating since you will be helpless regardless of how well you prepare (unless you can live off the land and protect yourself indefinitely).

So yeah, we’re only preparing for the minor craziness–like 2-4 weeks worth of minor civil unrest, some looting, some food shortages, etc.–not the apocalypse stuff.

Anyway, why do I think this is necessary? Because I am of the opinion that we’re about to see a period of hyper-inflation caused by the world failing to “believe in”, i.e. back, our currency. And we’ll just print more…and more…and more…until it becomes virtually worthless.

Enter $20 gallons of milk, and $15 gallons of gas.

Now, considering that some 37 million Americans live in poverty, what do you think that’s going to do to crime when they can’t pay for their basic needs? They’re going to do the same thing you or I would do, i.e. whatever it takes.

I see dark times ahead. Hopefully I’m wrong (along with Peter Schiff and Glenn Beck and countless others) and I can bury this post along with all my other stupid ones–of which there are many.

But I might not be. And if I’m not then you’re going to wish you got your 2-4 weeks of food and water and supplies together like I recommended. I’d rather feel stupid about doing it and never needing it than the other way around.

Anyway, here’s to hoping I’m being stupid.:

Ok, first watch this video, and notice that this guy Peter Schiff completely nails the exact situation we are currently in.

And now read this, which he wrote very recently, that lays out precisely where we’re heading if we don’t wake the hell up soon. Note: it’s precisely the same argument that Ron Paul and Ross Perot have been making for years.

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The Beginning of the End

Peter Schiff, President and Chief Global Strategist

While I have warned for years that the United States was headed into the eye of an economic hurricane, nearly every other “expert” from Washington, Wall Street, the press and academia saw nothing ahead but sunny skies. Now, suddenly, there is an overwhelming consensus that absent the Federal mortgage bailout, my dire forecast would have come to pass. While I’m glad that rose colored glasses have finally been removed from so many eyes, the vast majority of these observers are still blind. In truth, the bailout plan substantially increases the threats to the U.S. economy.

When I wrote my book “Crash Proof”, I not only predicted that our consumer/mortgage credit-based economy would fall apart, but that the government would ineptly try to repair it. The magnitude of those potential policies formed the basis of my worst case scenario. My fears have now been confirmed, and the U.S. Government is now set to destroy all hope of economic recovery.

Make no mistake; had the government resisted the political pressure to interfere with the markets, we would now be experiencing a very deep recession. But by refusing to let the markets work, policy makers are resisting the only medicine capable of curing the economic disease that afflicts us. The same mistakes were made in the early 1930’s, causing a severe financial crisis to morph into the decade-long Great Depression.

The government will now attempt to keep bad loans from failing and real estate prices from falling. Rather then allowing market forces to rein in excess borrowing and replenish savings, it will encourage even more borrowing and drain what is left of our savings pool. Rather than allowing our economy to return to one based on legitimate production, it will continue to encourage reckless consumption.

In the end, by refusing to allow market forces to work their cure, our economy will inevitably die from the disease. Our economy will now face death by hyperinflation, which will cause a complete loss of confidence in the dollar and result in prices and interest rates skyrocketing out of sight. The evaporation of our national wealth will lead to civil unrest, food and energy shortages, and the possible imposition of martial law. If such a scenario unfolds, what is left of our Constitution will surely be completely shredded.

Although this reality looms as large as anything I have ever seen, investors still do not see the forest for the trees. Convinced that the bailout will actually work, and that foreign governments are derelict for not launching similar plans, global investors are fleeing other currencies in favor of the dollar. Soon investors will discover that foreign politicians and central bankers have acted responsibly. When they do, the current gains seen by the dollar will reverse violently.

Investors seem to be bracing themselves for a global depression that will not occur. Foreign stocks, particularly those exposed to China or natural resources, are trading at the lowest valuations I have seen in my entire career. Fears of a global meltdown are based on the misconception that the U.S. economy is the tent pole for economic activity around the world. The premise of my entire argument is that the U.S. economy, by consuming so much of the world’s resources and manufactured goods, and borrowing so much of the world’s savings, has in fact been a drag on the global economy.

The enormous global vendor financing scheme is finally coming to an end as the vendors discover that their biggest customer is flat broke. In the short run, our creditors are experiencing some pain because they finally realize that they will never get their money back.

Once the foreign stock markets take this hit, they will be far better poised to grow than their American counterpart. Foreigners will reclaim their productivity and savings for themselves, and will subsequently experience the biggest global economic boom in history. America on the other hand will fare much worse, as we will be left with a hollowed out manufacturing base, dilapidated infrastructure, no savings, and a gigantic Federal Government that will regulate, spend, borrow and print our economy into ruin.

For an updated look at my investment strategy, order a copy of my just released book, “The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets.” While the “bull moves” I forecast have yet to materialize, I am confident that given time they will. The good news is that now you actually have some time to put my strategy in place at favorable prices and exchange rates!

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You may have heard the term “peak oil”. It’s an important term to know. Here’s the definition from Wikipedia:

Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. The concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells.

The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time appears to grow exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines, sometimes rapidly, until the field is depleted. It has been shown to be applicable to the sum of a nation’s domestic production rate, and is similarly applied to the global rate of petroleum production.

It is important to note that peak oil is not about running out of oil, but the peaking and subsequent decline of the production rate of oil.

Links

[ Peak Oil | wikipedia.org ]

This essay is the reason I love the Internet. I love the exposure the blogsphere gives to great, but hidden, writing. This essay may change your mind about free markets.

Links

[ Free Markets and Freedom ]

I’m no economist, and I’m not even very strong with the fundamentals (that would make me an economist, I suppose). But I am starting to pay more attention.

Out of all the explanations and models that I hear, this one laid out below encapsulates my current understanding the best.

A great quote from the piece:

Consider a different view of cause and effect. If the recession is a correction to an overly pumped economic boom, matters change. The recession, then, is not an aberration crying out for correction; it is itself the correction for the unsustainable economic bubble that preceded it. It should be welcomed in the same way we welcome a sober day after a drunken evening, or the detoxification of an addict after a period of addiction.

[ Grand Theft Society | mises.org ]

But he’s a financial guru with a solid track record. Some dismiss him because he’s known as “Dr. Doom”, but that was probably going on in 1929 as well.

The scariest part about all this to me is the unrest. I firmly believe that’s coming. We’re about to fall as a superpower. We’ll soon be a third-world country with various pockets of wealth speckled about. I give it 5-10 years, but I wouldn’t surprised if we saw the first major breakdowns of society in the coming months.

Go pack your “oh shit” bags.

[ Worse Than the Depression ]

To put it more bluntly, the reason crime dropped so much in the 90’s was because many of the people who would have been committing the crimes simply weren’t there. In other words, federal support of abortion lowered the crime rate.

Wikipedia on the Donohue and Levitt Study:

Donohue and Levitt use statistics to point to the fact that males aged 18 to 24 are most likely to commit crimes. Data indicate that crime started to decline in 1992. Donohue and Levitt suggest that the absence of unwanted aborted children, following legalization in 1973, led to a reduction in crime 18 years later, starting in 1992 and dropping sharply in 1995. These would have been the peak crime-committing years of the unborn children.

The authors argue that states that had abortion legalized earlier and more widespread should have the earliest reductions in crime. Donohue and Levitt’s study indicates that this indeed has happened: Alaska, California, Hawaii, New York, and Washington experienced steeper drops in crime, and had legalized abortion before Roe v. Wade. Further, states with a high abortion rate have experienced a greater reduction in crime, when corrected for factors like average income. Finally, studies in Canada and Australia have established a correlation between legalized abortion and crime reduction.

So that raises the questions:

1. What percentage of Americans do you think know this?
2. How do you think a responsible society should use such information?

Links

[ Legalized Abortion and Crime Effect | wikipedia.com ]

[ Google Results for Topic ]

Q. What is an Economic Stimulus Payment?
A. It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers.

Q. Where will the government get this money?
A. From taxpayers.

Q. So the government is giving me back my own money?
A. Only a smidgen.

Q. What is the purpose of this payment?
A. The plan is that you will use the money to purchase a high-definition TV set, thus stimulating the economy.

Q. But isn’t that stimulating the economy of China?
A. Shut up.

[ David Barry ]

Bush evidently thinks giving a bunch of lower and middle-class families a lump sum of cash is going to help the economy. The idea is that they’re in such bad shape financially that they’ll run out and blow the money — which will be good for America.

Awesome.

So that’s what it’s come to, huh? Hoping millions of people with maxed-out credit cards will go out and waste a bunch of money that the government gave them? Oh, and this is money they don’t have, by the way. So we’re borrowing money from China to pay for Iraq, but we’re going to find multiple billion more to give away to lift the American spirit?

Lame.

It’s a total waste of money. Six months later nobody will even remember the check went out. The money will be wasted on crap like DVDs, eating out, and upgrading our big-screen TVs. After that these same people will still have the same maxed-out credit cars, the same bills, and will ultimately be in the exact same shape they were before we wasted billions of dollars.

I’ve got a better idea. How about we start making stuff again? How about we stop relying on China, a country who’s basically laughing their assess of at us while they wait for us to die. How about we stop allowing greedy fucking lenders plunder the mouthbreather masses with loans they know they can’t pay?

This country is in shambles, and it sickens me that the best thing our government can think of to do is send out a check to make us forget about it for 20 minutes.: