Judging Risk Based On Genetic Testing

By Daniel Miessler on May 13th, 2007: Tagged as Big Brother | Future | Musings | Technology

I was just taking a shower and had a frightening idea. With all this talk of the National ID program, and the inclusion of biometric identification into the system, I started thinking about other trends in technology that could impact it.

So the main danger, critics argue, of the National ID system is that as it becomes prolific it will get used for more and more purposes. I think this will include private industry before too long. We already send copies of drivers licenses to do credit checks, for example.

Well imagine what will happen when we understand genetics better — all the way to the point where one could have a test done and a computer could map out the person’s tendencies and weaknesses. We’ve all heard about the fat gene, a propensity for violence, being vulnerable to alcoholism, depression, etc.

Well what if that data were to be stored in people’s files? What if it were to be converted into an individual risk matrix (IRM). So on your card (and in the database) would be everything about you up until that point. Obvious things like age, race, height, weight, etc. But also things like country of origin, who your parents were. What affiliations they had (think semantic web), etc.

Now imagine this information being at the disposal of local law enforcement. They stop the Arab kid down the road and run a “query” on him. Hmm…missing school a lot. He’s been going to the local Mosque quite a bit. Oh, and he’s genetically prone to religious devotion by a margin of 2.6 deviations. And he’s walking out of a hardware store with a bunch of mechanical-looking stuff.

Or how about your insurance agency doing a “query” on you. Credit score, genetic risk factors for suicide, depression, heart disease, current health records, etc. And all this information gets run through an algorithm that decides whether you get a policy and how much you’ll be charged.

Or a local redneck at a bar late at night when the cops show up. Ok, he’s at a bar. His father died in a drunk driving accident, he’s divorced, and he has no ride home. Genetics indicate he’s likely to fight if we attempt to arrest him. Call for backup.

The scary thing is that all of these things could be used for good. Some other ideas that open up once the genetic material is easy to attain and replicate:

college admission, dating sites, ordering brides…

Thoughts?

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Viewing 8 Comments

    • ^
    • v
    This mirrors the ideals of eugenic thought common before the Second World War.

    The idea is however flawed. Frogs have a greater amount of genetic material than humans. Many find this surprising as we are supposedly superior. Frogs however have to lay eggs in ponds that change in temperature and have to have embryos that fend for themselves.

    People have a material development; we have a womb and breast feeding. As a result we have a controlled environment to develop.

    There are genetic similarities, twin studies have shown this, but there are also differences – clone studies (not on humans to my knowledge) have demonstrated this in mammals.

    We are a combination of both nature and nurture and the situation is reflective in this.

    Take as an example a non-genetic result that has been experimentally proven. A woman with a restricted diet during pregnancy will create a child with a better than average calorific storage capability. This is the child will gain weight easier.

    So the comment “Genetics indicate he’s likely to fight if we attempt to arrest him.” Is not correct. Genetics coupled with increased adrenal excretion during pregnancy maybe… This is still a little way out of reach though.
    • ^
    • v
    This is a great example of how alarmist propaganda works. (The current Bush administration was great at this before the current Iraq war.) You didn't SAY that the National ID system would have this sort of information included in it, you just posed an innocent question: What if?

    Well, I'd fight hard against some (most) of the things you list. I'd consider them abuses.

    I'm not going to go through your list point by point, but I will mention your insurance example, since this has LONG been discussed as a place of potential abuse (and one which has NOTHING at all to do with a National ID system). I believe that the purpose of insurance is to spread risk. (And, I'll add in passing that I think that this is a good thing.) I do not believe that rates should be higher for those with higher genetic risk factors (though I am in favor of waiting periods for those who go without insurance until they suddenly need it). On the other hand, if someone has a history of driving violations, they CERTAINLY should pay more in auto insurance. (I expect that this last sentence will spawn some hypotheticals.)
    • ^
    • v
    Make that Maternal devleopment...
    • ^
    • v
    I agree with Carl
    • ^
    • v
    Guys, although I mentioned the National ID thing in this ... post... it really was a separate line of thinking. I was thinking more along the lines of sci-fi here, not politics. I wasn't trying to say that this highly theoretical and most definitely FUTURISTIC concept should be a strike against the National ID.

    I mean, I do see how you guys got that, but trust me -- it was unintentional. I was more focusing on the idea of deciphering one's genetic code and using it to gauge your place in society due to integration with technology that private companies would leverage.
    • ^
    • v
    "I was more focusing on the idea of deciphering one’s genetic code and using it to gauge your place in society due to integration with technology that private companies would leverage."

    Well this would be probabilistic at the best. One needs also to understand many other factors and genetics is just a small step right at the moment to that phase.

    All genetic assessments are a complexity based assessment where we do not have much of the information.

    As for personality, the Mylar casing on nerve fibres does not
    complete formation until the age of 20-21 and thus there is a large amount of variation due to this alone.
    • ^
    • v
    There has been already a movie about this very scenario - Gattaca or The Eighth Day

    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0119177

    It's excellent.

    -- Arik
    • ^
    • v
    As sci-fi, it's an interesting concept .. and one that has been pretty well explored in the genre. I was pretty sure that you were not TRYING to link the idea to the National ID system, but it was too good an example of how extremists "almost" make arguments linking two unrelated things. The reader is sometimes left with the impression that there is a link.
 

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