Comments on: Peak Oil http://dmiessler.com/blog/peak-oil grepping intervals Fri, 09 Jan 2009 13:35:05 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Andrew http://dmiessler.com/blog/peak-oil/comment-page-1#comment-175910 Andrew Tue, 19 Aug 2008 22:22:08 +0000 http://dmiessler.com/blog/peak-oil#comment-175910 <p>Peak oil isn't a particularly interesting or brave conjecture. In the form it's stated production "appears to grow exponentially" - like GDP, population, share prices, and cpi appear to grow exponentially. The second statement is that production reaches a peak and then declines. This is obvious if you assume the total amount of oil in the world (area under the curve) is finite, and if you assume oil production (the curve) is smooth.</p> <p>Of course, on a microscopic level, peak oil is completely false. During some picoseconds no oil molecules are extracted, during a few, thousands are. It's a poisson process, and it would look nothing like Hubbert's curve.</p> <p>Overall though, high oil prices are a great thing. The market is forcing politicians, scientists and consumers to solve global warming, without even realising they're doing it. That's why the traders at the NYMEX earn so much.</p> Peak oil isn’t a particularly interesting or brave conjecture. In the form it’s stated production “appears to grow exponentially” - like GDP, population, share prices, and cpi appear to grow exponentially. The second statement is that production reaches a peak and then declines. This is obvious if you assume the total amount of oil in the world (area under the curve) is finite, and if you assume oil production (the curve) is smooth.

Of course, on a microscopic level, peak oil is completely false. During some picoseconds no oil molecules are extracted, during a few, thousands are. It’s a poisson process, and it would look nothing like Hubbert’s curve.

Overall though, high oil prices are a great thing. The market is forcing politicians, scientists and consumers to solve global warming, without even realising they’re doing it. That’s why the traders at the NYMEX earn so much.

]]> By: TIMM http://dmiessler.com/blog/peak-oil/comment-page-1#comment-175894 TIMM Tue, 19 Aug 2008 21:42:48 +0000 http://dmiessler.com/blog/peak-oil#comment-175894 <p>One more note of interest in establishing the concept of peak oil and it's decline, of the varying rates and the lesser defining concepts is because of it's complexity, the peak oil rate cannot be accurately observed, even until after it's decline has manifested. </p> <p>Your thoughts?</p> <p>-=T=-</p> One more note of interest in establishing the concept of peak oil and it’s decline, of the varying rates and the lesser defining concepts is because of it’s complexity, the peak oil rate cannot be accurately observed, even until after it’s decline has manifested.

Your thoughts?

-=T=-

]]> By: Daniel Miessler http://dmiessler.com/blog/peak-oil/comment-page-1#comment-175748 Daniel Miessler Tue, 19 Aug 2008 13:41:45 +0000 http://dmiessler.com/blog/peak-oil#comment-175748 <p>I believe they're accounting for all this in the equation, Tim.</p> I believe they’re accounting for all this in the equation, Tim.

]]> By: http://cooperati.livejournal.com/ http://dmiessler.com/blog/peak-oil/comment-page-1#comment-175155 http://cooperati.livejournal.com/ Mon, 18 Aug 2008 04:24:31 +0000 http://dmiessler.com/blog/peak-oil#comment-175155 <p>I've thought of this every now and then and realized that the rate of production is subject to demand, which can be manipulated by alternate fuel markets, fickle consumer interests, and new oil limiting technologies. </p> <p>At present, total world raw petroleum resources are still unknown, though estimable to about twice what we've used in the last century. And, since new drilling techniques will need to be developed to get to the deepest, last sources of oil, the future remains uncertain, except that consumers are becoming more informed of their options and what the inevitable prices will yield in options for those consumers. </p> <p>This last concept, of the informed consumer, will probably result in two oil markets, one hard in alternative fuel opportunities, and one following in tow. Ultimately, the world leaders in oil consumption will be able to manipulate their price by introducing these other technologies, and will divide the world, and create two rates of consumption, which will not necessarily be in synchronicity. </p> <p>Then, after the decline, and after everything has been dug up, the same rate rule will apply to the remaining supplies in storage, such as the American Strategic Oil Reserve. The the last trade resources will become primary factors in obtaining oil; money, then brute force. </p> <p>-=T=-</p> I’ve thought of this every now and then and realized that the rate of production is subject to demand, which can be manipulated by alternate fuel markets, fickle consumer interests, and new oil limiting technologies.

At present, total world raw petroleum resources are still unknown, though estimable to about twice what we’ve used in the last century. And, since new drilling techniques will need to be developed to get to the deepest, last sources of oil, the future remains uncertain, except that consumers are becoming more informed of their options and what the inevitable prices will yield in options for those consumers.

This last concept, of the informed consumer, will probably result in two oil markets, one hard in alternative fuel opportunities, and one following in tow. Ultimately, the world leaders in oil consumption will be able to manipulate their price by introducing these other technologies, and will divide the world, and create two rates of consumption, which will not necessarily be in synchronicity.

Then, after the decline, and after everything has been dug up, the same rate rule will apply to the remaining supplies in storage, such as the American Strategic Oil Reserve. The the last trade resources will become primary factors in obtaining oil; money, then brute force.

-=T=-

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