War With Iran Before November: A Prediction + Scenarios

By Daniel Miessler on May 4th, 2008: Tagged as America | Iran | Iraq | War

warwithiran

I think we’re going to war with Iran, and I think it’ll happen this summer. I think it’s already been decided and all we’re looking for now is a way to motivate the American sheeple into getting behind it. Here’s a list of ways to do just that.

  1. Another terrorism incident here in the U.S. with a link to a group supposedly financed out of Iran, e.g. Hezbollah. Faux News shows the dead Americans and runs video of Hezbollah training camps and our nation of mouthbreathers spins up into another war frenzy.
  2. Iran “attacks” an American or Israeli military asset, e.g. plane, boat, etc. We respond by “returning” fire and the war starts when Iran defends itself.
  3. We find “proof” that Iran is making nuclear weapons for the purpose of waging war. We show some mushroom clouds and pictures of Jesus and get the illiterates ready for battle.

Many of my intelligent and liberal friends don’t think this can happen. They think the country is already wise to how the administration works and that they’d never fall for such a thing.

I think they’re optimistic to the point of foolishness.

The Stupid Are Easily Manipulated

The depth of emotion-based stupidity within this country is terrifying. It’s true that the country currently feels some level of distrust for the Bush administration, but that can instantly be erased by any of the incidents above executed with Rovian precision.

Picture the guy with the 3-ton SUV with the yellow ribbon on it.

Mainstream Mouthbreather: “I don’t trust Bush. He’s in Iraq for oil. But I support the troops.”
Faux News: “Iran bombed an American shopping mall.”
Mainstream Mouthbreather: “Kill them all. Turn it into a glass parking lot. I’ve never trusted those A-rabs.”

This can, and very likely will, happen. The signs are very clear. The only question is, what can we do about it?

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Viewing 16 Comments

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    I see that I am not the only one predicting this scenario. I expect it because the neo-cons will do this to complicate the election, if not entirely eliminate it since W has a Unitary governmental powers. It might even be used to rally the herd into thinking that Iran is a threat and that we need a hawk at the helm. Either way things do not look good for the Persians or us. If you pray to someone do so now. Stupid is as stupid does.

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    The spirit of Napolean strikes again, except Napolean at least had some intelligence.


    Back to Spice Wars 2008. Our Congress is too scared of more white powder being sent in the mail to do anything about our dictator Cheney.

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    I'm not sure if even neocons will try this, but if they do, this summer will be the time. After all, the chances of them getting another four years in the WH are pretty slim, and you can smell the desperation and fear in the sweat dripping of their sloped brow ridges.


    However, one big barrier is simply the lack of available forces to accomplish the job. Granted, the invasion of Iraq was done on an anemic shoestring as well, but they're even out of shoestrings at this point. Then there's the growing fracture in the neocon base, the republican party. Its presidential candidate is in trouble both financially and politically. Fundraising isn't gong well for McBush, and he's having a hard time solidifying his base. Ironically, Hillary may be the neocons' only viable option at this point.

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    We can't do much about it in the short term.


    In the long term, we can do all sorts of things to stop creating new "mouthbreathers".

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    the only thing to do is take over the news broadcasts to get a lil truth out there. Sneak up on a live broadcast and say "Don't Invade Iran!!" Non violent resistance.

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    Vice-President's Underground Bunker
    Naval Observatory Grounds
    March 13, 2008
    1000 hours local time


    "Scooter", the VP's hand picked assistant and go to guy, was thinking it's a good thing that these walls are bomb and sound proof, for if they were not, most of Washington, DC would get to hear the one everybody called "Dick" go another of his rampages.


    "Goddamn it, I want to know NOW why that false-flag attack against one of our carriers in the Gulf, why that hasn't been pulled off" screamed "Dick."


    "We should have been bombing the hell our of Tehran by now. That attack was planned with utmost care, from the speed boats we stole from Iran off Kish Island, to painting those damn things to look like they belonged to the Quds Force, to filling the damned thing with explosives, to having freshly dead Persians on board, with copies of the Koran in their robes, to our friends in the Israeli submarine service planting a sub-atomic device below the ship's hull where the boat was primed to hit. All of that planning, time, effort and money spent and just what in the hell have we got to show for it, huh. I want answers and I want them NOW" thundered "Dick" and for effect, he slammed his fist down on the table.


    "Scooter" looked around the table. This was a collection of mostly young, aggressive types, hand picked by "Dick" and himself, to fill out the VP's staff years ago. The ones chosen for this project had shown on past ops, to get excited at the sight of another's blood.


    And not just spilled blood, no, not for this group. The blood of another had to be spilled in a most gruesome way. A favorite among this group was jetting down to Gitmo, where they practiced "enhanced interrogation" techniques on those lost souls. One way to give this group a rise in their Levi's was to let one personally disembowel a subject with a straight razor, so they could watch in awe the man slowly suffer a drawn out death.


    What they lacked in experience, they more than made up for by enthusiasm, with any project, now matter how bloody or depraved thought out by "Dick", any of his ideas these kids took the ball and ran with it.


    Eyeing the bunch, "Scooter" thought that a few of them had probably pissed in their pants, so venomous were "Dick's" tirades.


    Except one. That one was Elliot Abrahams, senior member of this group and veteran of several presidential administrations. Elliot had served with distinction 25 years ago, in Central and South America, running black bag ops for then President Reagan's National Security Council.
    Some of the more homicidal recruits for the never ending war against democracy in the region were personally trained by Elliot.


    He personally showed the the American backed and funded troops in El Mozote, El Salvador, how to scare the hell out of the locals by grabbing babies from their mothers, then tossing the child into the air and using a bayoneted rifle to catch the kid.


    Elliot, between Republican administrations, had taken a "sabbatical" to Israel for training with the MOSSAD's Department 2800. "Scooter" wondered who was the teacher and who the pupil in those sessions.


    Yes, Elliot was one cool customer, alright, thought "Scooter" and one he didn't want to piss off.


    "Mr. Vice-President" said Elliot, "If I may, sir. The scheduled operation in the Gulf, as you so brilliantly oversaw, was planned with exquisite care. And yes sir, Tehran should already be a smoking ruin by now."


    "Where the operation failed was in its human element. The driver of the speed boat demanded more money, much more than the 10 million dollars his family was to get. As a result, the operation was called off and the recruit and his family, including aunts and uncles and nephews, taught a lesson. A lesson which will not be lost on the other recruits for our Middle East black bag ops, as we brought those "volunteers" to see what happens to one who backs out of an agreement. The mutilated bodies that are missing heads, that had been cut off with a dull saw, should have sufficiently put the resolve back into those folks."


    A perverse grin crept across "Dick's" face. "Dammit Elliot, you always know how to get my heart pumping fast. OK, what's done is done, let's keep this thing going. We need a good excuse to invade Iran, so what else do we have planned for sinking that carrier? As everyone knows, just telling a pack of lies to our compliant MSM won't do the trick this time. They fell for our line of BS before we invaded Iraq, but this time, we need to send them a message that will scare the hell out of America and get them so mad that they'll demand we bomb Iran into rubble."


    "So gentleman, how do we sink a US carrier in the Persian Gulf and pin the blame on Iran?", asked "Dick" to no one in particular.


    "Sir, if I may", ventured NSC rep Mark Grossberg. "As you know, the Iranian Air Force has some of our older F-14's still in service that they acquired when our man in Tehran, the Shah, purchased those jets. Sir, we still have a number of F-14's on hand, in reserve mode. Sir, we could paint up several of them to look like they belonged to the Iranian Air Force. Install some of those automated flight devices, like we had on the 747's that slammed into the WTC and use those F-14's to attack the carrier. Sure, there will be wreckage, but most of that will be on the sea floor. To cover up our trail, we'll use that same Navy dive team that recovered TWA flight 800 off Long Island Sound, sir."


    "And by using some of those same sub-atomic devices that were to be used in the false-flag boat attacks, we can be sure of doing heavy damage to the carrier, if not sinking her outright. I've crunched some numbers on the expected deaths and of the 5,000 or so sailors and marines onboard, we should see a mortality rates of around 80% Which means, sir, that over 4,000 dead Americans will be available to show non-stop on some of our friend's cable TV news channels. Sir, that's more than was killed in our 9/11 attacks and it would all but guarantee Americans demanding vengeance and immediate retaliation against Iran, sir."


    "Sounds like a plan, wonder boy, but who in the hell are we going to use for pilots, huh, answer me that one?"


    "Sir, we have an excellent selection of brainwashed automatons at Gitmo. As you know, sir, some of those people have been held incommunicado from their families for over six years. Throw in the propaganda sessions, administered by a trained psychiatrist using psychoactive drugs, the torture sessions, lack of adequate food and complete isolation from other humans and sir, I am proud to say we have a whole company of Sirhan Sirahn's at our disposal."


    This time, the VP didn't grin, but was smiling from ear to ear. "Damn fine work, Marc. Why don't you and Elliot take care of that and let's plan this op for the middle of May. That will give you time to put in place the "smoking gun" evidence that those idiotic embedded reporters in the ME theater need to push our version of the story 24/7."


    "Scooter" breathed a sigh of relief. "Dick" was not one to piss off, even by making an offhand comment about simple matters, like how he couldn't shoot a quail for shit, like his friend in Texas had unfortunately mentioned. For that off the cuff remark, "Dick" had shot his friend in the face. No doubt, all of that 12 yo single malt Scotch in the VP's body helped pull the trigger, but still "Dick" was a man of action and by gosh, action he was going to get to make his dreams of nuking Iran turn into reality.


    "Sir, one more question", some under assistant to the Secretary of Defense asked. "What about President Bush?"


    Shit, thought "Scooter", this guy has a death wish.


    With blinding speed for a man of his size, "Dick" vaulted over the table and proceeded to beat the living hell out of the man for asking that question.


    The VP kept pounding the man's face until it was turned into a bloody pulp. "Scooter" could tell he was still breathing, by the way the bloody foam bubbled up out of his nose.


    The beating only stopped when "Dick" became winded. "Goddamn it, I told you clowns before that we leave Junior out of these sessions. He is not to be informed of anything until the day it happens. That damned moron might blurt out something to the press and we'd all be in deep shit."


    "Now, anymore questions?", asked "Dick"


    The room was silent.

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    "what can we do about it" ?


    Absolutely nothing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


    Unless you're willing to set yourself on fire in DC or something.


    No one will listen to you.

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    All the time I think of my friend Koshrow from Tehran. His father sent him and his brother here right before the revolution. He asked me in 1999, 'Are you not voting for Bushy?' I said of course not, I'm a Gore man. I advised him at that time that if Bush is elected, expect us to attack somebody, and to invest in what Bush and Cheney have investments in, Oil and Defense. Of course, I figured it would be N. Korea.
    But now, I'm saddened to know that someone who fled his country to come to america has voted for someone who wants to attack their homeland.
    Anyway, as we have seen with this term, the person with the real untouchable power is the vice president, so I don't care who is running for president, just show me the veep.

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    What the hell is comment #6 by Greg Bacon? Where is this from?

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    Odds are strong that we'll be at War with most of the European Union, Russia, and Communist China by the Fall of '08. Dictator Cheney will not relinquish his power in January and the true face of evil will be seen.


    We're screwed.

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    I think you're a bit wrong. I don't doubt they'd try, but Congress and the senate were made to look shamefully stupid last time around. This time I think they'll favor saving face. Bush ran out of using "It would be unamerican not to support this war". I don't think I'm optimistic, I just don't think he can pull it off twice.


    The other thing is that oil, which is a big piece of the war, is not as important as it was in Iran even a year ago. There are 4 oil markets including the 3 original and the new Iranian Oil Bourse. The IOB trades in Euros, which have now become less of a trading commodity due to the inflatin in the US and the crashing dollar. As the fed continues to print more money, it decreases the power of the Iranian oil exchange.

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    I'm afraid you might be right Daniel.


    It's a fight for control of the Middle East and its oil, and all the pieces are set up for this game. It only takes the right time. I think they might use a combination of all three options you mentioned.


    The recently opened Iranian oil bourse will only be an extra stimulus for attack, as it takes the dollar further away from being the petrodollar and global trade currency. Saddam could do what he liked until he started to sell his oil for Euros.


    But I'm afraid Cheney will go atomic for this one as the military is stretched thin. They will certainly avoid damaging the oil wells and industry, so they might glaze the cities.


    Who will be able to stop them?


    After that I expect decades of insurgencies and attacks on pipelines and installations.


    It would be much wiser to invest all those recourses, lives and money into research for sustainable energy. But I'm pretty sure that this is not on any agenda as this would mean the end of the power game. Unless a new source of energy would end up in the hands of only a few...

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    Well, what can we do about it? For those of us who agree that this is very likely to happen and not that the media will not face any backlash from the people when they spew jingoisms on the news... What can we actually do to voice out against it?

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    "This can, and very likely will, happen. The signs are very clear. The only question is, what can we do about it?"


    Absolutely nothing. Everyone who thinks like you and says the things you say are nothing more than a bunch of pathetic, parakeet liberal males and hags that are ruled by their emotions.


    You'll do nothing, because you are capable of so little to begin with, much less using your brain to search for facts without letting your pre-conceived world views and what you want to believe get in the way of reality.

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    Strange. The most extreme utterance so far on Iran has come from a leading Democrat. To 'obliterate' Iran suggests the massive use of weapons of mass destruction. That might provoke Iran's neighbors to take drastic measures themselves. To avoid this risk the attackers would have to reasure the neighbors that only 'limited' objectives were in mind - like the incapacition of nuclear research facilities and the takeover of Iranian oilfields in ethnically Arab areas. This would be to take a leaf out of Saddam Hussein's book, of course. Then he was almost an ally of the West until he did something stupid like invading Kuweit, an oilfield to far. This 'limited' strategy would also reassure the markets on the oil supply question and afford a useful bargaining counter to ensure the status quo ante. Even this 'safwer' strategy is fraught with uncertainties of course. Why can't they all be reasonable.

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    The time has come and gone, and you were wrong. Now what?

 

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