White House Flu FUD

By Daniel Miessler on May 3rd, 2006: Tagged as Health | Politics

“”It is impossible to predict whether the H5N1 virus will lead to a pandemic,” the report said, “but history suggests that if it does not, another novel influenza virus will emerge at some point in the future and threaten an unprotected human population. …

Hmm, so at some point we’ll get rocked by flu and millions will die. Thanks. So basically, “I’m not saying we’re all going to die a horrible death any time soon, I’m just saying that eventually it’ll happen.”

I’m all for getting prepared, but how necessary is it to spread doom and gloom? I sometimes get the feeling that these people get more kudos if their reports spell out imminent destruction than if they are level-headed.

Well, to whoever wrote that report — kudos to you.

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Tim 2 years ago 1 point
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OH GOD, GET OUT PLASTIC SHEETS AND DUCT TAPE, WE GOTTA SEAL THE HOUSE!

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dylan 2 years ago 1 point
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Oh well, the blue and white theme couldn't live forever.

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Carl M 2 years ago 1 point
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Well, let's be fair. The guy who wrote the quoted text is not the one spreading doom and gloom. He (or more likely a team of scientists) was asked for a prediction of whether this current potential flu threat will lead to a pandemic. He answered in the only way possible. "Who knows. But, if history is any guide, then you can be fairly sure that there will be a pandemic SOMETIME in the future."

And probably what he didn't say (but was probably thinking) is: "For YEARS we've been telling you knotheads in government that a flu pandemic has the potential to kill millions of Americans and millions more around the world. We've begged you for the resources to develop the necessary tools and infrastructure to minimize the impact of that pandemic if and when it strikes. To be honest, we're delighted that there is this scare now because, frankly, it might enable you to get your heads out of the sand long enough to appropriate some funds."

So, I don't blame the report writer for the doom and gloom. The direct cause of the doom and gloom is the media, but really it is government that is to blame. The fact is that our government is largely in crisis management mode. That is, we seem to react to things only when a crisis is (or seems to be) imminent. We simply don't seem to have the ability to look at the long term. We've known for years that our dependence on oil was a problem. When does Bush push for alternative energies? Only when a crisis (of sorts) is here. Scientists have been pushing for development of alternative energies for at least 30 years. Of course they were not cost effective, but perhaps if we'd invested in their development they might have been sooner than now. And, in any case, they'd perhaps be ready now. Scientists have been talking about global warming for years (there was SOME disagreement, but not the widespread disagreement that some in government would have you believe .. the disagreement among scientists was almost entirely about the details rather than about the fact that humans influence global climate). Now that the evidence is becoming impossible to deny, we may start to see the government start to take action. (It may take a different bunch in Washington.) So, is it any surprise that the government reacts only to a (potential) crisis to do something about the possibility of a flu pandemic? Perhaps the media needs to fan the flames a little to get the public worried enough that polls indicate that they care about this. Only then will the government spend the necessary money.

Hmm .. maybe it's not even the government to blame. The public (largely ignorant of risk analysis) might have rebelled if the government tried to spend money on a flu threat that the public didn't perceive as being real. The government, sensing this, didn't press the issue. But now that the public has been stirred into a little bit of worry, the politicians can do their jobs and protect the public. Hmm .. maybe we have a convoluted system .. but perhaps it works.

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Daniel Miessler 2 years ago 1 point
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Perhaps you're right about the analysis being too harsh.

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